Issued forecast

2026-09-23 18:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP152026

Fifteen-E

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-23T12Z, CMC 09-23T12Z, CTCI 09-23T12Z, HFAI 09-23T12Z, HMNI 09-23T12Z, HWFI 09-23T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 88 kt; maximum group track spread is 272 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z	Official	14.5°N	154.4°W	30 kt	1004 hPa	TD
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.6°N	154.8°W	31 kt	—	TD
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.7°N	155.3°W	33 kt	—	TD
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	155.7°W	34 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	155.8°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	156.0°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.9°N	156.1°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.9°N	156.3°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.0°N	156.3°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	156.3°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	156.2°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.4°N	156.2°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	156.0°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.7°N	155.9°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	155.7°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	155.6°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	155.5°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	155.4°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	155.4°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	155.3°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	155.4°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	155.4°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	155.5°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	155.6°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	155.8°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	156.0°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	156.3°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	156.5°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	156.9°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	157.2°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	157.6°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	157.9°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	158.3°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	158.8°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	159.2°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	159.6°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	159.9°W	83 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	160.3°W	85 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	160.7°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	161.0°W	88 kt	—	HU

EP162026

Odalys

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-23T12Z, CMC 09-23T12Z, CTCI 09-23T12Z, HFAI 09-23T12Z, HMNI 09-23T12Z, HWFI 09-23T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 28 kt; maximum group track spread is 163 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z	Official	16.0°N	127.9°W	65 kt	989 hPa	HU
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	127.6°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	127.3°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	127.0°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	126.7°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.2°N	126.3°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	126.0°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	125.7°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	125.5°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	125.3°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.0°N	125.2°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	125.0°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.4°N	124.8°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	124.5°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	124.3°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	124.2°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.3°N	124.2°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	124.1°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	124.0°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	124.0°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	124.0°W	46 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	124.0°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.2°N	124.1°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	124.2°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	124.3°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	124.3°W	35 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	124.3°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	124.4°W	37 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	124.7°W	37 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	124.8°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	124.9°W	33 kt	—	TD
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	125.0°W	29 kt	—	TD
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	125.2°W	30 kt	—	TD
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	125.4°W	30 kt	—	TD
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	125.5°W	30 kt	—	TD
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	125.7°W	29 kt	—	TD
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	125.8°W	28 kt	—	TD
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	126.0°W	27 kt	—	TD
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	126.3°W	28 kt	—	TD
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	126.5°W	28 kt	—	TD

EP172026

Polo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-23T12Z, CMCI 09-23T06Z, CTCI 09-23T12Z, HFAI 09-23T12Z, HMNI 09-23T12Z, HWFI 09-23T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 72 kt; maximum group track spread is 461 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z	Official	15.4°N	101.8°W	130 kt	927 hPa	HU
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	102.0°W	128 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.7°N	102.2°W	127 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	102.5°W	125 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	102.8°W	124 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.2°N	103.2°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	103.6°W	121 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	104.0°W	120 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	104.5°W	119 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	105.0°W	118 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	105.4°W	117 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	105.9°W	116 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	106.4°W	118 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	106.8°W	120 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	107.3°W	121 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	107.8°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	108.2°W	126 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	108.6°W	130 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	109.0°W	133 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	109.4°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	109.8°W	137 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.9°N	110.1°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.0°N	110.5°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	110.8°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	111.0°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.4°N	111.3°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	111.5°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	111.7°W	137 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	111.8°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	111.8°W	129 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	111.9°W	121 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	112.0°W	114 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	111.9°W	104 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	112.1°W	94 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	112.3°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	112.5°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.8°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	113.0°W	72 kt	—	HU