EP222026
Twenty-Two-E
AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-21T12Z, CMCI 10-21T06Z, CTCI 10-21T12Z, HFAI 10-21T12Z, HMNI 10-21T12Z, HWFI 10-21T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 18 hours with 40 kt; maximum group track spread is 116 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.
| Valid UTC | Status | Latitude | Longitude | Wind | Pressure | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z | Official | 9.5°N | 99.3°W | 30 kt | 1005 hPa | TD |
| 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.5°N | 99.7°W | 32 kt | — | TD |
| 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.4°N | 100.0°W | 34 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.4°N | 100.4°W | 36 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-22T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.4°N | 100.7°W | 38 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-22T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.4°N | 101.0°W | 39 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-22T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 9.3°N | 101.3°W | 40 kt | — | TS |