AECPHC — Eastern & Central Pacific Cyclones

EP202026

Simon

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-15T12Z, CMCI 10-15T06Z, CTCI 10-15T12Z, HFAI 10-15T12Z, HMNI 10-15T12Z, HWFI 10-15T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 51 hours with 34 kt; maximum group track spread is 144 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z	Official	19.2°N	108.1°W	50 kt	996 hPa	TS
2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	108.1°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	108.1°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	108.1°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	108.1°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	108.2°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	108.3°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	108.3°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	108.6°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	108.9°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-16T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	109.2°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	109.5°W	46 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.5°N	109.9°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.7°N	110.3°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	110.7°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	111.1°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.5°N	111.4°W	35 kt	—	TS
2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	111.7°W	34 kt	—	TS

EP212026

Trudy

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-15T12Z, CMCI 10-15T06Z, CTCI 10-15T12Z, HFAI 10-15T12Z, HMNI 10-15T12Z, HWFI 10-15T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 51 kt; maximum group track spread is 151 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z	Official	13.1°N	101.6°W	80 kt	975 hPa	HU
2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.3°N	101.7°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.5°N	101.7°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.7°N	101.8°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.0°N	101.8°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.2°N	101.9°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.4°N	101.9°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.6°N	102.0°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	102.1°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.0°N	102.3°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-16T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	102.4°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.4°N	102.5°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	102.7°W	86 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	103.0°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	103.2°W	89 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	103.4°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	103.7°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	104.0°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	104.3°W	93 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	104.5°W	93 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	104.8°W	90 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	105.2°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.0°N	105.5°W	85 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.3°N	105.8°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.5°N	106.1°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	106.4°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	106.7°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	107.0°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-19T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.2°N	107.1°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-19T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	107.2°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-19T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	107.4°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	107.5°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	107.6°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	107.7°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-10-19T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	107.8°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	107.8°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-10-20T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	108.0°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-20T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	108.1°W	51 kt	—	TS

2026-10-15 15:00Z

Simon

Trudy