EP202026
Simon
AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-12T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-12T18Z, CMCI 10-12T18Z, CTCI 10-12T18Z, HFAI 10-12T18Z, HMNI 10-12T18Z, HWFI 10-12T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 57 hours with 53 kt; maximum group track spread is 61 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.
| Valid UTC | Status | Latitude | Longitude | Wind | Pressure | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12T21:00:00.000Z | Official | 20.2°N | 106.8°W | 85 kt | 969 hPa | HU |
| 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 20.4°N | 106.8°W | 83 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 20.6°N | 106.9°W | 80 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 20.8°N | 106.9°W | 78 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.0°N | 107.0°W | 77 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.1°N | 107.1°W | 77 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.3°N | 107.2°W | 76 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.5°N | 107.3°W | 75 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-13T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.6°N | 107.4°W | 75 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.6°N | 107.5°W | 74 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.7°N | 107.5°W | 74 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.8°N | 107.6°W | 73 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.8°N | 107.5°W | 70 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.9°N | 107.5°W | 66 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.1°N | 107.5°W | 64 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.2°N | 107.4°W | 63 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-14T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.3°N | 107.4°W | 60 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.4°N | 107.3°W | 58 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-15T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.6°N | 107.3°W | 55 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-15T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.7°N | 107.3°W | 53 kt | — | TS |