Unofficial coverage — follow official warnings

Issued forecast

2026-10-11 15:00Z

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Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP182026

Rachel

Official post-tropical or remnant analysis. No additional center forecast is issued.

Valid UTCStatusLatitudeLongitudeWindPressureType
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000ZOfficial35.8°N114.6°W30 kt994 hPaPTC

EP202026

Simon

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-11T12Z, CMCI 10-11T06Z, CTCI 10-11T12Z, HFAI 10-11T12Z, HMNI 10-11T12Z, HWFI 10-11T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 33 hours with 81 kt; maximum group track spread is 37 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTCStatusLatitudeLongitudeWindPressureType
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000ZOfficial19.2°N105.3°W125 kt937 hPaHU
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast19.4°N105.4°W116 kt— HU
2026-10-11T21:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast19.6°N105.5°W106 kt— HU
2026-10-12T00:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast19.9°N105.7°W97 kt— HU
2026-10-12T03:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.0°N105.8°W92 kt— HU
2026-10-12T06:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.1°N106.0°W87 kt— HU
2026-10-12T09:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.3°N106.1°W83 kt— HU
2026-10-12T12:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.4°N106.2°W79 kt— HU
2026-10-12T15:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.6°N106.3°W79 kt— HU
2026-10-12T18:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.8°N106.5°W80 kt— HU
2026-10-12T21:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast20.9°N106.5°W80 kt— HU
2026-10-13T00:00:00.000ZAECPHC forecast21.1°N106.7°W81 kt— HU