Issued forecast

2026-10-10 15:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-10T12Z, CMCI 10-10T06Z, CTCI 10-10T12Z, HFAI 10-10T12Z, HMNI 10-10T12Z, HWFI 10-10T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 33 hours with 35 kt; maximum group track spread is 63 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z	Official	25.5°N	119.6°W	50 kt	992 hPa	TS
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	26.3°N	119.0°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	27.1°N	118.5°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	27.9°N	117.9°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	29.1°N	117.6°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	30.3°N	117.2°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	31.4°N	116.8°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	32.6°N	116.5°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	34.0°N	116.2°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	35.5°N	115.7°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	36.9°N	115.1°W	37 kt	—	TS
2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	38.3°N	114.6°W	35 kt	—	TS

EP202026

Simon

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-10T12Z, CMCI 10-10T06Z, CTCI 10-10T12Z, HFAI 10-10T12Z, HMNI 10-10T12Z, HWFI 10-10T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 33 hours with 49 kt; maximum group track spread is 106 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z	Official	17.4°N	104.8°W	130 kt	938 hPa	HU
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.7°N	104.9°W	121 kt	—	HU
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	105.0°W	112 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.2°N	105.0°W	103 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.5°N	105.2°W	95 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	105.3°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.2°N	105.4°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	105.5°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	105.6°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	105.7°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	105.8°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	105.8°W	49 kt	—	TS