EP182026
Rachel
AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-07T06Z, CMCI 10-07T06Z, CTCI 10-07T06Z, HFAI 10-07T06Z, HMNI 10-07T06Z, HWFI 10-07T06Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 35 kt; maximum group track spread is 480 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.
| Valid UTC | Status | Latitude | Longitude | Wind | Pressure | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z | Official | 20.6°N | 121.2°W | 70 kt | 979 hPa | HU |
| 2026-10-07T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 20.8°N | 121.4°W | 68 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.0°N | 121.7°W | 66 kt | — | HU |
| 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.1°N | 121.9°W | 63 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.3°N | 122.2°W | 61 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.5°N | 122.5°W | 59 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.7°N | 122.8°W | 57 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 21.9°N | 123.1°W | 56 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.1°N | 123.4°W | 54 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.2°N | 123.8°W | 53 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.4°N | 124.1°W | 52 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.5°N | 124.4°W | 51 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-08T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.6°N | 124.6°W | 50 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.6°N | 124.8°W | 49 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.7°N | 125.1°W | 48 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.8°N | 125.3°W | 47 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.8°N | 125.3°W | 46 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.8°N | 125.3°W | 45 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.8°N | 125.2°W | 44 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 22.9°N | 125.2°W | 43 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 23.0°N | 124.9°W | 42 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 23.1°N | 124.6°W | 42 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 23.2°N | 124.3°W | 42 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 23.3°N | 124.0°W | 41 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 23.7°N | 123.5°W | 41 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 24.1°N | 123.0°W | 42 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 24.5°N | 122.4°W | 43 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 24.9°N | 121.9°W | 44 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 25.5°N | 121.4°W | 44 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 26.1°N | 120.9°W | 45 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 26.7°N | 120.6°W | 46 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 27.3°N | 120.3°W | 48 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 28.4°N | 120.0°W | 48 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 29.1°N | 119.7°W | 47 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 29.8°N | 119.3°W | 47 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 30.4°N | 119.0°W | 46 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 31.0°N | 118.7°W | 43 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 32.0°N | 118.3°W | 39 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-12T03:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 33.1°N | 118.0°W | 36 kt | — | TS |
| 2026-10-12T06:00:00.000Z | AECPHC forecast | 34.1°N | 117.6°W | 35 kt | — | TS |