AECPHC — Eastern & Central Pacific Cyclones

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-02T12Z, CMCI 10-02T06Z, CTCI 10-02T12Z, HFAI 10-02T12Z, HMNI 10-02T12Z, HWFI 10-02T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 45 hours with 88 kt; maximum group track spread is 27 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	Official	23.2°N	167.2°W	60 kt	987 hPa	TS
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	167.5°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	167.9°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	168.3°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	168.7°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	169.1°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	169.7°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	170.4°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	171.1°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	171.7°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	172.6°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	173.4°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	174.3°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	175.2°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	176.1°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	177.0°W	88 kt	—	HU

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-04T12Z, CMCI 10-04T06Z, CTCI 10-04T12Z, HFAI 10-04T12Z, HMNI 10-04T12Z, HWFI 10-04T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 43 kt; maximum group track spread is 171 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	Official	20.2°N	113.8°W	90 kt	965 hPa	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	114.0°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	114.3°W	85 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	114.5°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	114.8°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	115.0°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	115.4°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	115.7°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	116.0°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	116.4°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	116.8°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	117.2°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	117.5°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	117.9°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	118.3°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	118.7°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	119.1°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	119.5°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.0°N	119.9°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	120.3°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	120.6°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	121.0°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	121.4°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	121.8°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.4°N	122.2°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.4°N	122.6°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.5°N	123.1°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	123.5°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	124.0°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.7°N	124.4°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	124.8°W	46 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	125.3°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	125.7°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	126.0°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-08T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	126.4°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	126.8°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-09T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	127.0°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-10-09T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	127.2°W	43 kt	—	TS

2026-10-04 18:00Z

Nolo

Rachel