AECPHC — Eastern & Central Pacific Cyclones

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-02T12Z, CMCI 10-02T06Z, CTCI 10-02T12Z, HFAI 10-02T12Z, HMNI 10-02T12Z, HWFI 10-02T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 45 hours with 88 kt; maximum group track spread is 27 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	Official	23.2°N	167.2°W	60 kt	987 hPa	TS
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	167.5°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	167.9°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	168.3°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	168.7°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	169.1°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	169.7°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	170.4°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	171.1°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	171.7°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	172.6°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	173.4°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	174.3°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	175.2°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	176.1°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	177.0°W	88 kt	—	HU

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-02T12Z, CMCI 10-02T06Z, CTCI 10-02T12Z, HFAI 10-02T12Z, HMNI 10-02T12Z, HWFI 10-02T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 61 kt; maximum group track spread is 147 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	Official	19.3°N	110.8°W	95 kt	959 hPa	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.0°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.1°W	88 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.3°W	85 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.5°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.6°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.8°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	112.0°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	112.2°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.4°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.6°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.8°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	113.0°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	113.3°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	113.5°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	113.7°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	114.0°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	114.2°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	114.5°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	114.7°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	115.0°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	115.2°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	115.5°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	115.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	116.1°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	116.5°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-05T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	116.8°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	117.2°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-10-06T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	117.5°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-06T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	117.8°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	118.2°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	118.6°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	119.0°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	119.4°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.0°N	119.8°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	120.2°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-07T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.2°N	120.5°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-07T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	120.9°W	61 kt	—	TS

2026-10-02 15:00Z

Nolo

Rachel