AECPHC — Eastern & Central Pacific Cyclones

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-30T18Z, CMCI 09-30T18Z, CTCI 09-30T18Z, HFAI 09-30T18Z, HMNI 09-30T18Z, HWFI 09-30T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 93 hours with 90 kt; maximum group track spread is 36 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	Official	21.6°N	164.7°W	45 kt	996 hPa	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	164.8°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.0°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.1°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.3°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.6°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.8°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	166.0°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.7°N	166.2°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	166.4°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	166.6°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	166.7°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	166.9°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.2°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.4°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	167.6°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	168.0°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	168.4°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	168.8°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	169.2°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	169.8°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	170.4°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	171.0°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	171.6°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	172.4°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	173.2°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	173.9°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	174.7°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	175.5°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	176.3°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	177.1°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	177.9°W	90 kt	—	HU

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-02T00Z, CMCI 10-01T18Z, CTCI 10-02T00Z, HFAI 10-02T00Z, HMNI 10-02T00Z, HWFI 10-02T00Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 77 kt; maximum group track spread is 194 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	Official	19.5°N	109.9°W	105 kt	950 hPa	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	110.0°W	101 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	110.2°W	98 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	110.3°W	95 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	110.4°W	93 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	110.6°W	90 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	110.7°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	110.9°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	111.1°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	111.3°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	111.6°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	111.8°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.1°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.3°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.5°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.7°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	112.9°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	113.1°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	113.3°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	113.5°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	113.7°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.0°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.2°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.5°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.8°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	115.1°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	115.5°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	115.8°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	116.2°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	116.6°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	117.0°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	117.3°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	117.7°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	118.1°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	118.5°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	118.9°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	119.3°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	119.7°W	77 kt	—	HU

2026-10-02 06:00Z

Nolo

Rachel