Issued forecast

2026-10-01 03:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-30T18Z, CMCI 09-30T18Z, CTCI 09-30T18Z, HFAI 09-30T18Z, HMNI 09-30T18Z, HWFI 09-30T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 93 hours with 90 kt; maximum group track spread is 36 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	Official	21.6°N	164.7°W	45 kt	996 hPa	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	164.8°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.0°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.1°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.3°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.6°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	165.8°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.6°N	166.0°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.7°N	166.2°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	166.4°W	38 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	166.6°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	166.7°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	166.9°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.2°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.4°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	167.6°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	168.0°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	168.4°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	168.8°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	169.2°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	169.8°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	170.4°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	171.0°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	171.6°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	172.4°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	173.2°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	173.9°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	174.7°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	175.5°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	176.3°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	177.1°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	177.9°W	90 kt	—	HU

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-01T00Z, CMCI 09-30T18Z, CTCI 10-01T00Z, HFAI 10-01T00Z, HMNI 10-01T00Z, HWFI 10-01T00Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 70 kt; maximum group track spread is 117 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	Official	19.2°N	108.5°W	80 kt	975 hPa	HU
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	108.7°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	108.8°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	109.0°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	109.1°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	109.2°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	109.3°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	109.4°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	109.5°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	109.7°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	109.9°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	110.2°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	110.4°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	110.6°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	110.8°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	111.0°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	111.3°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	111.5°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	111.8°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	112.0°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	112.3°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	112.6°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	113.0°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	113.3°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	113.7°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	114.1°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	114.5°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	114.9°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	115.3°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	115.7°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	116.2°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	116.5°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	116.9°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	117.2°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	117.5°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	117.8°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	118.3°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	118.7°W	70 kt	—	HU

EP192026

Nineteen-E

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 10-01T00Z, CMCI 09-30T18Z, CTCI 10-01T00Z, HFAI 10-01T00Z, HMNI 10-01T00Z, HWFI 10-01T00Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 45 hours with 30 kt; maximum group track spread is 95 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	Official	15.2°N	125.9°W	25 kt	1006 hPa	TD
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	125.3°W	25 kt	—	TD
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	124.7°W	26 kt	—	TD
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	124.1°W	26 kt	—	TD
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	123.6°W	26 kt	—	TD
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	123.0°W	25 kt	—	TD
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	122.5°W	25 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	122.0°W	25 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	121.4°W	26 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	120.8°W	26 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.0°N	120.1°W	27 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.9°N	119.5°W	27 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	118.9°W	28 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.7°N	118.3°W	29 kt	—	TD
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.6°N	117.6°W	29 kt	—	TD
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.6°N	117.0°W	30 kt	—	TD