Issued forecast

2026-09-30 03:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-30T00Z, CMCI 09-29T18Z, CTCI 09-30T00Z, HFAI 09-30T00Z, HMNI 09-30T00Z, HWFI 09-29T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 105 hours with 103 kt; maximum group track spread is 88 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	Official	22.0°N	164.2°W	75 kt	977 hPa	HU
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	164.3°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	164.4°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	164.5°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	164.7°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	164.8°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	165.1°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	165.3°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	165.5°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.3°N	165.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	166.1°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	166.4°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	166.7°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	166.9°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	167.2°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	167.4°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.7°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	167.9°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	168.2°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	168.4°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	168.8°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	169.1°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	169.3°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	169.7°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	170.2°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	170.7°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	171.2°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	171.7°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.0°N	172.3°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	172.9°W	89 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	173.6°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	174.2°W	94 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.5°N	175.0°W	96 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	175.8°W	99 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	176.6°W	101 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	177.4°W	103 kt	—	HU

EP172026

Polo

Official post-tropical or remnant analysis. No additional center forecast is issued.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	Official	30.5°N	108.0°W	30 kt	996 hPa	PTC

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-30T00Z, CMCI 09-29T18Z, CTCI 09-30T00Z, HFAI 09-30T00Z, HMNI 09-30T00Z, HWFI 09-30T00Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 59 kt; maximum group track spread is 174 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	Official	17.0°N	106.6°W	60 kt	989 hPa	TS
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	107.0°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	107.2°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	107.5°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.2°N	107.7°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	107.9°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	108.0°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	108.2°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.0°N	108.3°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	108.5°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	108.6°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	108.7°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	108.8°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	109.0°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	109.1°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	109.2°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	109.3°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	109.5°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	109.7°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	109.8°W	82 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	110.0°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	110.2°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	110.4°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.5°N	110.6°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	110.8°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	111.0°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	111.2°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	111.4°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	111.6°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	111.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	112.1°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	112.5°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	112.8°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.7°N	113.1°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	113.5°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.0°N	113.9°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	114.3°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	114.7°W	59 kt	—	TS

EP192026

Nineteen-E

Official post-tropical or remnant analysis. No additional center forecast is issued.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	Official	13.8°N	130.2°W	25 kt	1006 hPa	TD