Issued forecast

2026-09-29 09:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-29T06Z, CMCI 09-29T06Z, CTCI 09-29T06Z, HFAI 09-29T06Z, HMNI 09-29T06Z, HWFI 09-29T06Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 99 kt; maximum group track spread is 116 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	Official	20.0°N	164.3°W	100 kt	958 hPa	HU
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	164.3°W	96 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	164.4°W	93 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	164.4°W	89 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.7°N	164.4°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	164.4°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	164.4°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	164.4°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	164.5°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	164.6°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.0°N	164.7°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	164.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.0°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.2°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.4°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.6°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.9°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	166.1°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	166.4°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	166.7°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	166.9°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	167.1°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	167.3°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	167.5°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	167.8°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	168.0°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	168.3°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	168.5°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	169.0°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	169.4°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	169.9°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	170.3°W	80 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	170.8°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.9°N	171.4°W	83 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.9°N	172.1°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	172.8°W	86 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	173.6°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	174.4°W	94 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	175.2°W	98 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	176.0°W	99 kt	—	HU

EP172026

Polo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-25T18Z, CMCI 09-25T18Z, CTCI 09-25T18Z, HFAI 09-25T18Z, HMNI 09-25T18Z, HWFI 09-25T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 33 kt; maximum group track spread is 214 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	Official	17.2°N	109.2°W	155 kt	913 hPa	HU
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	109.7°W	152 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	110.1°W	149 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	110.6°W	146 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.4°N	111.0°W	144 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.5°N	111.4°W	143 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.7°N	111.8°W	142 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	112.2°W	140 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	112.5°W	139 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	112.8°W	138 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	113.2°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	113.5°W	135 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	113.7°W	133 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.0°W	131 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	114.2°W	129 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	114.4°W	127 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	114.5°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	114.7°W	119 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	114.8°W	114 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.5°N	114.9°W	110 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	114.9°W	107 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	115.0°W	103 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	115.0°W	100 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	115.0°W	96 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.0°N	114.9°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	114.8°W	88 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	114.7°W	83 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	114.5°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	114.3°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	114.1°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	113.9°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	113.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.7°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.4°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.2°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	113.0°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	112.9°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	112.8°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	112.6°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	112.5°W	33 kt	—	TD

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-29T06Z, CMCI 09-29T06Z, CTCI 09-29T06Z, HFAI 09-29T06Z, HMNI 09-29T06Z, HWFI 09-29T06Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 68 kt; maximum group track spread is 173 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	Official	14.7°N	104.3°W	50 kt	992 hPa	TS
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.0°N	104.7°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	105.1°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	105.5°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	105.8°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.2°N	106.1°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	106.4°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.9°N	106.7°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	106.9°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.5°N	107.1°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	107.4°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	107.7°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.3°N	107.9°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.5°N	108.0°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	108.2°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	108.4°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.0°N	108.5°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	108.6°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.2°N	108.7°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	108.8°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.4°N	108.8°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	108.9°W	76 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	109.0°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	109.0°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.8°N	109.1°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	109.2°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.0°N	109.3°W	77 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.1°N	109.4°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	109.5°W	73 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	109.6°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.6°N	109.7°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	110.0°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.9°N	110.4°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.0°N	110.8°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	111.1°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.2°N	111.5°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.2°N	111.9°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	112.3°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	112.6°W	68 kt	—	HU
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.3°N	113.0°W	68 kt	—	HU