Issued forecast

2026-09-28 06:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP152026

Nolo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-27T06Z, CMCI 09-27T06Z, CTCI 09-27T06Z, HFAI 09-27T06Z, HMNI 09-27T06Z, HWFI 09-27T06Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 68 kt; maximum group track spread is 158 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	Official	16.5°N	157.3°W	85 kt	967 hPa	HU
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	157.8°W	85 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	158.2°W	86 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	158.7°W	86 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	159.2°W	88 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	159.7°W	89 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.9°N	160.2°W	91 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	160.7°W	93 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	161.1°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	161.6°W	91 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	162.0°W	91 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.0°N	162.4°W	90 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	162.7°W	88 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	163.0°W	87 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	163.3°W	84 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.5°N	163.5°W	81 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	163.6°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.3°N	163.7°W	78 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	163.8°W	75 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.2°N	163.9°W	72 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.5°N	164.0°W	71 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.9°N	164.2°W	70 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.2°N	164.3°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.5°N	164.4°W	67 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	164.7°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	165.0°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	165.3°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	165.4°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	165.7°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.1°N	166.1°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.0°N	166.4°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.9°N	166.7°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.8°N	167.1°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	167.4°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.6°N	167.8°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	168.2°W	64 kt	—	HU
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	168.5°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	168.8°W	65 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	169.1°W	66 kt	—	HU
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	169.4°W	68 kt	—	HU

EP172026

Polo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-25T18Z, CMCI 09-25T18Z, CTCI 09-25T18Z, HFAI 09-25T18Z, HMNI 09-25T18Z, HWFI 09-25T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 33 kt; maximum group track spread is 214 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	Official	17.2°N	109.2°W	155 kt	913 hPa	HU
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	109.7°W	152 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	110.1°W	149 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	110.6°W	146 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.4°N	111.0°W	144 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.5°N	111.4°W	143 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.7°N	111.8°W	142 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	112.2°W	140 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	112.5°W	139 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	112.8°W	138 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	113.2°W	136 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	113.5°W	135 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	113.7°W	133 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.6°N	114.0°W	131 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.9°N	114.2°W	129 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.2°N	114.4°W	127 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.4°N	114.5°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	20.8°N	114.7°W	119 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.1°N	114.8°W	114 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.5°N	114.9°W	110 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	21.8°N	114.9°W	107 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.1°N	115.0°W	103 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.4°N	115.0°W	100 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	22.7°N	115.0°W	96 kt	—	HU
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.0°N	114.9°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.2°N	114.8°W	88 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.3°N	114.7°W	83 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	114.5°W	79 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.4°N	114.3°W	74 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.5°N	114.1°W	69 kt	—	HU
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	113.9°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	113.8°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.7°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.4°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	113.2°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.8°N	113.0°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	112.9°W	41 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.7°N	112.8°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	112.6°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	23.6°N	112.5°W	33 kt	—	TD

EP182026

Rachel

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-27T18Z, CMCI 09-27T18Z, CTCI 09-27T18Z, HFAI 09-27T18Z, HMNI 09-27T18Z, HWFI 09-27T18Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 117 hours with 50 kt; maximum group track spread is 90 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z	Official	12.6°N	99.1°W	35 kt	1005 hPa	TS
2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	12.7°N	99.3°W	37 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	12.8°N	99.6°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.0°N	99.8°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.2°N	100.1°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.3°N	100.5°W	46 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.5°N	100.8°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	13.7°N	101.1°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.0°N	101.5°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.2°N	101.8°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.4°N	102.2°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.6°N	102.5°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	102.8°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.1°N	103.0°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	103.4°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	103.8°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	104.2°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	104.5°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	104.9°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.0°N	105.3°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	105.6°W	60 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	105.8°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	106.1°W	61 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	106.4°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-09-30T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.2°N	106.6°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.3°N	106.8°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	106.9°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.5°N	107.1°W	63 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	107.2°W	62 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	107.3°W	59 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	107.4°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	107.5°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	107.5°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	107.5°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	107.6°W	51 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	107.6°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.0°N	107.6°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	107.7°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.1°N	107.9°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.2°N	108.0°W	50 kt	—	TS