Issued forecast

2026-09-22 15:00Z

Historical AECPHC forecast as issued. Positions, wind, pressure and classifications shown below were forecast values unless marked observed.

EP162026

Odalys

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-22T12Z, CMCI 09-22T06Z, CTCI 09-22T12Z, HFAI 09-22T12Z, HMNI 09-22T12Z, HWFI 09-22T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 34 kt; maximum group track spread is 85 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z	Official	14.9°N	130.5°W	55 kt	998 hPa	TS
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.9°N	130.2°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.0°N	129.9°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.1°N	129.5°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.2°N	129.1°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	128.7°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	128.3°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.4°N	127.9°W	58 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.4°N	127.5°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.5°N	127.1°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.6°N	126.8°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.7°N	126.5°W	57 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.8°N	126.2°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	125.9°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.1°N	125.7°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	125.4°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	125.2°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	124.9°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	124.8°W	56 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	124.6°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.0°N	124.5°W	55 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	124.3°W	54 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.5°N	124.2°W	53 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.7°N	124.1°W	52 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.8°N	124.1°W	50 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	124.0°W	49 kt	—	TS
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.0°N	124.0°W	48 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	124.0°W	47 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	124.0°W	45 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.2°N	124.1°W	44 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.3°N	124.2°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	124.2°W	43 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	124.2°W	42 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.7°N	124.3°W	40 kt	—	TS
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.8°N	124.3°W	39 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	124.3°W	37 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	124.3°W	36 kt	—	TS
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.0°N	124.3°W	34 kt	—	TS

EP172026

Polo

AECPHC model-consensus forecast initialized from the official 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z analysis. Guidance: AVNI 09-22T12Z, CMCI 09-22T06Z, CTCI 09-22T12Z, HFAI 09-22T12Z, HMNI 09-22T12Z, HWFI 09-22T12Z. Related models are combined before equal weighting across independent groups. Initial position and wind offsets fade over 24 hours. Forecast ends at 111 hours with 88 kt; maximum group track spread is 449 n mi. Pressure and structural transition timing are unavailable. This method has not been calibrated against historical errors.

Valid UTC	Status	Latitude	Longitude	Wind	Pressure	Type
2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z	Official	14.7°N	101.6°W	145 kt	920 hPa	HU
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	101.6°W	144 kt	—	HU
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.8°N	101.6°W	142 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	14.9°N	101.6°W	141 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.1°N	101.7°W	140 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.3°N	101.8°W	137 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.4°N	102.0°W	134 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.5°N	102.1°W	132 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.7°N	102.4°W	130 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	15.9°N	102.8°W	131 kt	—	HU
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.0°N	103.0°W	131 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.2°N	103.3°W	130 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.3°N	103.7°W	128 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.4°N	104.0°W	124 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.5°N	104.3°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.6°N	104.7°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.7°N	105.1°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	105.5°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-24T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.8°N	106.0°W	124 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.9°N	106.5°W	124 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	16.9°N	106.9°W	124 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.0°N	107.3°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	107.8°W	123 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	108.2°W	122 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.1°N	108.7°W	121 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	109.1°W	119 kt	—	HU
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.2°N	109.5°W	118 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.3°N	109.8°W	116 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.4°N	110.2°W	114 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.6°N	110.6°W	113 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.7°N	110.8°W	115 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	17.9°N	111.0°W	118 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.1°N	111.1°W	109 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.4°N	111.3°W	101 kt	—	HU
2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.6°N	111.4°W	94 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	18.9°N	111.5°W	92 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.3°N	111.7°W	90 kt	—	HU
2026-09-27T06:00:00.000Z	AECPHC forecast	19.7°N	111.8°W	88 kt	—	HU